Dot com bubble. Real estate bubble. Commodities bubble.
Healthcare
bubble? How can the US healthcare system be a bubble when tens of
millions are uninsured and more people fall through the cracks daily?
The media, public, and politicians alike have been more concerned with
the inadequacies of the system than with its rapid growth. US healthcare
spending has grown enormously,
exceeding the rate of inflation for decades to become the largest sector of the US economy. The United States now spends over
16% of its GDP on healthcare,
almost double the average for developed nations.
Perhaps Americans just demand the best and priciest healthcare, with
the most modern technology and treatments. If Americans paid for
healthcare themselves, this would simply represent a rational spending
choice. But the federal government now incurs 60% of all healthcare
spending, meaning that taxpayers, and not individuals, pay for most of
our healthcare. Medicare, Medicaid, and other direct government
healthcare accounts for
46% of healthcare spending, while tax breaks on healthcare subsidize another 10-15% of healthcare spending [1].
At current growth rates, government healthcare spending will exceed
the entire Federal budget by 2050 [2]. Total spending on healthcare will
near
one-third of GDP by 2030.
It’s unlikely that the US can devote 1/3rd of all productive capacity
to healthcare without crippling other sectors of the economy and
reducing overall economic growth. The healthcare bubble thus dwarfs all
previous bubbles in size, since the technology, real estate, and energy
sectors
are all so much smaller.
How will the bubble pop, and what will its effects be? Since most
healthcare spending is federal, the bubble will pop when the government
can no longer afford its healthcare outlays. The US has been able to
borrow freely by issuing debt for many decades, but this will eventually
end once our debt exceeds GDP. With the current downturn, government
debt may actually exceed GDP by 2015 [3]. Thus the reckoning may come
sooner than many expect.
Will healthcare reform contain costs and deflate the bubble
gradually? Most reform plans focus more on increased coverage than on
cost control, so they may exacerbate the problem. Eventually the hard
choices will have to be made, and they will include some combination of
reducing Medicare benefits, cutting provider reimbursements, openly
rationing government health care, and limiting the tax break on health
insurance. I just hope that some of the hard choices are made before we
are collectively up against a fiscal wall.
[1]
$200 Billion in taxes
are foregone as a result of the employer-based healthcare tax
deduction, equivalent to 10% of all healthcare spending. When this
subsidy is included the government’s share of healthcare spending rises
to 56%. This analysis does not include the exemptions on property taxes
and sales taxes that healthcare providers receive; adding these
subsidies in would likely drive the government’s share of health care
spending over 60%.
[2] The
CBO predicts that Medicare and Medicaid will account for 14% of GDP by 2050. This figure doesn’t include healthcare spending through the
VA system, SCHIP program, and
other federal healthcare programs,
which total $100 Billion in spending today. If these programs also grow
commensurately, total government spending may near 18% of GDP in 2050,
roughly equivalent to total government revenue.
[3] This
projection of public debt growth shows that US government debt will exceed gdp by 2050. This only takes into account debt held by the public, however.
Gross government debt is already above 65% of GDP,
and may grow to 75% by the end of 2010 as a result of the recession and
stimulus spending. With deficits of $500B+ per year possible for
several year, US total government debt could exceed gdp in less than 10
years.